أثر سياسة سعر الصرف علي الميزان التجاري دراسة حالة السودان 2005-2015

Abstract

Sudan has suffered for long periods of the phenomenon of exchange rate fluctuations, which led to significant imbalances in the balance of payments, which adversely affected the economic performance in its entirety and its impact on the balance of trade. The problem of the research in the main question, what is the nature and direction of the relationship between the exchange rate and trade balance during the study , The study aimed at clarifying the formulas, policies and theories explaining the exchange rate, and the relationship between the exchange rate policy and the situation of the trade balance in Sudan during the study and access to a clear vision about the mechanism of exchange rate and the situation during the study, The exchange rate affects total exports and imports. The research hypotheses that there is an inverse relationship between the exchange rate policy and the trade balance, the multiple exchange rates has a negative impact on the trade balance, and that continuous exchange rate change leads to weak competitiveness of Sudanese exports. The fourth chapter discusses the effects of the exchange rate policy as a mechanism to solve the imbalance in the trade balance. The fourth chapter also discussed the subject of the exchange rate in Sudan and the policies of the Central Bank; the fifth chapter was devoted to the analysis of the impact of the exchange rate policy on the trade balance during the period 2005-2015. The correlation between the variables (80-) and the exchange rate on a continuous basis leads to weak competitiveness of Sudanese exports. The value of the coefficient of correlation between the value of exports and the exchange rate (69- ) indicating a strong inverse relationship. The recommendations are to diversify the composition of exports with a focus on manufacturing instead of exporting materials in raw form, and also to develop consistent and non-conflicting policies that want to enter the investments and the new capital, especially agricultural investments.